Does 'Sarah Connor' Have The Economy To Thank?
When Fox gave a full-season order to "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" and NBC did the same with "Knight Rider," many analysts called their psychiatrists to make sure they weren't going crazy.
While some might consider the moves to be almost a cry out that the networks don't have to go by the book, The Hollywood Reporter believes there is a much more sane underlying cause for the pickups: the economy.
Networks are facing an interesting crisis. Shares for the public companies that own Fox, NBC, ABC and CBS are down. Way down. And that means there isn't a lot of extra money to do the things networks typically do when they have to replace a show, including new marketing and new production budgets.
News Corp., for instance -- the parent company of Fox -- had shares close at $8.60 on Oct. 24 after trading as high as $23.25 over the past year. General Electric Co. has a more diverse product base, yet shares for the NBC Universal parent closed at $17.83 Friday after being as high as $41.22 over the past 52 weeks.
But it's more than just the stock market. Last year's Writers Guild of America strike thinned out potential new series, so there isn't a lot for the networks to pull from.
"Most years, there would be more cancellation then there have been to date," John Rash, a senior vice president at advertising agency Campbell Mithun, told the trade publication. "But the dual dynamics of schedule stability keeping ad dollars in place is combing with delayed programming development from least season's writers strike."
In other words, shows aren't performing well, but their numbers remain stable.
So far this season, "Sarah Connor" is averaging a 3.6 rating/6 share in overnight ratings, down 36 percent from its average last year wen it was considered a "bubble" show. "Knight Rider" is averaging a 4.5/7, off 18 percent from the average "Bionic Woman" earned in the same timeslot last year -- a rating that cost "Bionic Woman" its life.
But both shows have remained stable, for the most part.
"Knight Rider" has a Stability Index Rating of 91.8 so far this season, a number calculated by Airlock Alpha that compares the show's highest overnight rating against its average that demonstrates how much of its overall audience a show maintains throughout the course of its season. That's well ahead of the Stability Index Rating of 65.5 "Bionic Woman" had last year, but that show did suffer some peaks and valleys, which included a high of 8.4/13 and a low of 3.9/7 in overnights. "Knight Rider" has fluctuated between a 4.2/6 and a 4.9/8 throughout its first season, helping to keep its audience mostly stable.
"Sarah Connor" has a Stability Index Rating of 87.8, slightly below what Airlock Alpha would consider strong, but definitely an improvement over last year's Stability Index Rating of 50.5, which was the lowest among genre shows last year. Part of that was caused by a series premiere spike of an 11.1/16 following an NFL playoff game, a rating that eventually fell nearly 50 percent to its 5.6/9 average.
Cancellation does create potential problems for a network, as well. Most networks lock in advertising a year in advance, but if a show is canceled, the unused investment is usually returned or used elsewhere, meaning that networks have to resell those ad slots. And as advertising budgets fall sharply, there may not be a lot of money available to re-purchase that time, and networks start to bleed even more money.
"From the networks' standpoint, they're loath to cancel since the cost of finding something to replace a show may not be worth it," said Shari Anne Brill, a programming director at advertising agency Carat. "And advertisers still prefer to be in a quality scripted series to an inexpensive reality show."
"Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" airs Mondays at 8 p.m. ET on Fox, while "Knight Rider" airs Wednesdays at 8 p.m. ET on NBC.
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